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The Final Push: Medium or Large?

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The number of followers I have on Twitter is so close to 3,000 I'll mention it again – follow me! It's free!

I am paying more attention to the patterns of index charts than I am anecdotes about Jewish holidays, and I'd like to use the $TRAN as an example this morning:


Even though I still have a good quantity of short positions and puts, I have loaded up my only large positions with bullish plays. The dip we've had over the past week has been healthy and orderly, and I think one last lunge higher across the psychologically-significant and media-friendly 10,000 level on the Dow would, paradoxically, be a wonderful gift for the bears.

The tricky part is gauging just how high it will go. The cyan and magenta tints in the chart indicate how the push higher could come in either a "medium" or a "large" size (God forbid fast-food-loving America super-sizes it, as it is wont to do). 

A run-up into earning seasons………..and a subsequent, honest-to-God, no-messing-around change in direction based upon earnings season (and the realization that, gee, companies have to make money the normal way without government gimmicks) makes sense to me. Slopers seem to be honing in on the October 9-16 area as the apex. I'm sure we'll all be watching. My final thought is – – if VIX were a stock, it sure is starting to look like a "buy".