Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

That Upward Trendline

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Well, the Market Focus for tomorrow from Barron's ("How the Smart Money…….{brief pause}………..Got That Way") is a real barn burner. Here we go:

Highlights
Your guess is as good as any on durables and the clunker effect. 

Anyhoo – – those who have been on Slope for a while know that I used to focus almost exclusively on the Russell 2000 for indexes. Back in those days, I didn't even know the /ES existed, and I didn't mention the S&P that much. Anyway, the $RUT has out-gorgeoused itself in wonderfulness with its massive head and shoulders pattern. This thing is huge……….Christina Romer huge………just amazing. But, should the bulls grab the reigns again (as they've done, oh, about 17 times this year) there's nearly 7% of "risk" left here, as I've tinted.

0924-rut

I beat a hasty path to the Exit door today with my really big shorts, although I re-entered my GLD short pretty late in the day.

The best possible scenario (realistically) for the bears would be something along these lines with the /ES below: a pop back to the low 1050s, an approach of the trendline, another attempt up, and then a trendline failure. At that point, it's kind of a different ball game, and it's going to be a matter of the bulls trying furtively to take control back from the bears and not the other way around.

0924-es2

The last couple of days have healed a lot of damage that my portfolio has been suffering. I'm hoping for a good Friday to wrap up what would be the first really good week I've had in a while. Suffice it to say the last two days have been highly restorative to the soul.

Heil Sei Dem Tag!

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At my advanced age (43……) I've decided that, as long as you've got food on the table and a roof over your head, all that really matters in life are (1) love; and (2) art.

I'm a chartist, not an artist, but I appreciate the art of others – especially music. I've shown a version of this clip before – the finale of Fidelio – but I urge you to fire it up and even just listen to it in the background while you do whatever-it-is that you do in the afternoon. It's good for your soul. Thank you, LVB!

Individual vs. Index

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As you've probably deduced, I look at a lot of stock charts every day. I greatly prefer taking on individual positions to indexes since – – if the market is generally going my way – – –  they are a lot less work! I'd much rather set up a position and let it stew for weeks on end, ratcheting stops for profit protection along the way, than try to be a gun-slinger with big index trades.

By definition, I tend to prefer issues that have historically shown a lot of volatility and, in the case of shorts, have a large opportunity for downside. ASH is a good example:

0924-ash

Take note not only of the series of lower highs but – important – the 800% rise (!!!!!!!!!!!) since March.

I have entered ASH, as well as a few other shorts, with these stops.

ASH 45.81  

CCL  34.96 

CEDC  34.71  

DD  34.60  

DOW  27.25  

FCX 73.44    

GET  25.86 

JPM  46.50  

MDR 27.31 

SA  29.72  

STP 17.69   

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