Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius

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Even though it's very late here, I feel way, way too guilty about leaving a lame-o post as my final post of the day. I really did put together a nice video, but it's lost to the dustbin of history.

I will share with you, then, my rationale for my "bold prediction" last week. Let's start with a snapshot of some market action from 1938. You should click on this image to get a better view.

0916-1938

I have hand-written a series of letters on this graph. The letters don't have any special meaning; they just provide a means of sequencing important highs and lows.

Now let's take a look at the present day, with the graph terminating on September 11, when I did this Starbucks Study:

0916-2009

What I've been focused on is the move from "M" to "N". I didn't know when "M" would be complete, but I will say this: in percentage terms, today marks precisely the same kind of move in 1938 of "L" through "M". If this is the case, the move to "N" would actually end at about 975, as opposed to the 950 I mentioned last week. But, hell, that's still nearly 100 points, and I'd gladly take it.

Some folks – mole in particular – like to utter the phrase, "history doesn't repeat; it rhymes." I'm not sure precisely how I'm supposed to apply that to real life, but – meh – I'm looking for things to repeat.

Captain’s Blog

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ARGH! Argh argh argh argh!!!!!!

No, I have not turned this into a pirate's blog. I just spent half an hour planning for, recording, processing, and uploading a video………..and YouTube, in the end, refuses to show it because it is more than 10 minutes.

It was a good video too! You would have enjoyed it. Lots of long and short ideas, and some general market commentary.

Damn it. I'm sorry about this. This probably makes a fitting end to the day. I really do apologize. I know you don't come to this blog to read about technical problems, but YouTube just jabbed me in the eye. 🙁

My incredible lame-o pathetic substitute is this – I've dug the post-it out of the trash can where I had jotted down the symbols to discuss.

Favorite Longs

CMZ

HERO

REXX

TOMO

AMCN

BBEP

CBL

DIG

PCX

SSO

URE

Favorite Shorts

SSG (ultrabear, so it's long, strictly speaking)

BAX

STEC

TEN

TXN

UNG

Snark and Despair All the Rage

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Wow, and I thought emotions were running hot last week. Things are spiraling out of control.

I am getting emails from people that are quitting trading. That has never happened to me – not in five years of doing this – that people are out-and-out quitting. But they are.

I'm getting despairing messages from fellow bloggers that they are about to quit.

And – most telling of all – the level of snark is reaching new heights. I just got this in my email box:

0916-asshole

What's kind of interesting to me about all this is the following…………

Back when the bears were ruling the land, and we were making money hand over paw………

  1. I was never tempted – not even once – not even a little – to scamper around to other blogs and post nasty messages, or to telephone bulls that I knew to laugh at them, or to send hate mail to bullish bloggers. Zero. Never. Not once. It didn't even cross my mind. So it's bizarre that these unmarried male punks in their 20s (and that's what most of them are, I assure you) feel the need to pull these stunts.
  2. Collectively, as a group, do you remember what we did when we had really fantastic profits? We would share ideas about charities to whom we could donate cash, and all kinds of good ideas were exchanged. I personally gave away a lot of money last October during one of our charity flings, and so did a lot of other Slopers.

People tend to think of bears as evil and nasty, but from my experience, bulls win that award, hands-down.

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