Well, Monday and Tuesday did the "bear tease", and the rest of the week wiped it clean, as if it never happened. We've got three days to rest and recuperate. For Friday afternoon, it's the usual – – reckless virtual imbibing.
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My attempts to short RTH have, in the past, been money-wasters. I've shyed away from RTH for a while, since I'm not a masochist. But something about a 9.7% unemployment rate………
……..and a chart showing a very robust retracement to the underside of a huge broken trendline……….
…….makes me think maybe this could work out for RTH bears for the balance of the year.
In last night's post, I wrote:
One thing you can count on: at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday, things are going to get very interesting! I already know, for me, it's either going to be a very good day or a very bad day. I am pretty sure that I'm going to go long the /ES in a big way before the announcement because I *cannot* be totally short and have a surprise. But I think I'm going to hold off until shortly before the announcement. Any thoughts and opinions on that tactic?
Well, people generally thought it was a bad idea, and for that I am grateful! TwoJacks wrote:
I'm expecting Fed-day like activity immediately surrounding the jobs number, so the key for me will be not touching the dials until things settle down. I don't think we'll collapse and I don't think we'll crash on the number. Somehow, I think a bigger move would've already happened. Too many insiders know the number already for price to be this quiet. I'm leaning toward the idea that it's a non-event.
And blues wrote:
Well, " going to go long the /ES in a big way before the announcement because", I'm not sure if that such a good idea… Often right after the job report, the 1 minute candle can get really crazy and fast (like this morning's job report, it drop like almost 4 points in the first 1 minute candle). So what happen if first candle go down like 3-4 points right away, are you going to get scare into selling it? If not, when ARE you going to sell it? Now if it goes down 3-4 points and BOUNCE BACK right away, but you got scare into selling it first, then what you going to do? buy it back? I've tried that tactic before, is useless, it may just scare you into the wrong direction and waste of money.
Sound advice! These Slopers are a smart bunch!
SIDE NOTE: Comments problems resolved. THANK YOU DANIEL!
I confess that my heart was in my throat in the seconds that ticked down to the release of the job numbers. When they were released, neither the bulls nor the bears grabbed hold of the market. We had our typical "EKG" type madness, with a ten-point range covered within a span of a minute or two. As I'm typing this, the /ES is up 3, and who knows where it'll be when you're looking at it. Suffice it to say that we didn't blast 30 points higher or lower on the news. It was – ironically – pretty much a non-event so far.
It was also one of the very few times that I clicked on CNBC, and it didn't take long before I clicked it off again. With an unemployment rate of 9.7% (which, we'll all agree, is a kind estimate), the talking heads still found a way to say Gee It's Not So Bad, much like a father would to a wayward son who produced a report card of all Fs, with the exception of a single, all-too-encouraging D-.
Since I took on a big short position in GLD yesterday, I was more interested in the overnight activity of precious metals. It's interesting to note that the gold futures contract had a "close, but no cigar!" moment yesterday trying to reach the fabled quadruple-digit level. As of this writing, it's down about seven bucks.
Disqus Note! Leisa just emailed me that Disqus is having troubles again (which is the equivalent of saying Bill Clinton is looking lecherously at women again). I'll try to hail them, but it's still pitch-black early out here.