Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

What Could Happen?

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I appreciate everyone putting up with my absence this afternoon. I remain handicapped, since I not only am away from my computer, but the one that I do have has a letter that does not function (the letter, by definition, I cannot type to you, but it is the first letter of my last name…..so I'm discovering how many words have this letter and I am having to be very creative in coming up with synonyms). Grrrrrrr…………

So, now that I am dealing with a 25-character alphabet, and a lame-o little laptop, let me pose this question: what do you imagine are some extraordinary things that might happen in our society if equities wend their way down from their current levels down to – I dunno – 6,000 on the Dow over the course of a few years. I am no speculating on the effects of a crash; I am opening up the idea of a multi-year grind down, as I've often postulated.

And I'm not that interested in hearing about pitchforks and torches. Some ideas I have include:

  • Renewed violent acts directly associated with financial distress;
  • Multiple congressional sessions where "wrongdoers" are dragged in front of television cameras and made to wring their hands (such as we did with all the Wall Street types about nine months ago, as well as the auto manufacturers who flew in on private jets, and so forth);
  • Similar congressional sessions where Federal Government members themselves are forced to wring their hands in front of a bloodthirsty public (Geithner, Bernanke, and so forth)
  • A totally surprising political shift, such as what now seems beyond imagination – – Obama as a one-term president.
  • Cramer getting fired or – even more extreme – CNBC shutting down altogether.

I would be interested to hear your ideas. I would also be interested in a fully functional keyboard, but you can't help with that. {Note: how did I manage to use the letter k when it is missing? I found a page that had it and did cut/paste; I am truly the MacGyver of broken laptops).

Out and About

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I have a series of meetings to attend, so I'm not going to do a post for a few hours. Strange day on the market today, eh? Absolutely no news, a major market holiday (volume-wise), and yet big gains all around. Good thing I had all those long hedge positions; those were a big help!

Anyway, there are a ton of great comments, so tawk amongst yerselves, and I'll do a post late this afternoon.

Gold Miners GDX

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I'm hanging on to my GDX long position, which is having a good day so far. The yellow tint below is the retracement. I am very impressment with the surge in volume recently. The real question is whether it simply fights its way back up to around 45 and then slips again, or whether it can muscle its way through that entire retracement area and push beyond it – – which would be insanely bullish, given the volume. I'm going to hang up and push the stop higher as we go.

0928-gdx

Underwhelmed by GLD

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I'm pretty surprised what a lame-o reaction GLD is having to the strength in equities; it looks like the dollar's strength is getting the best of it. So far this morning, equities are strong (The Dow is up well over 100 points, and all my index quotes are green); as you can see below, SPY is kicking GLD's hiney. I'm throwing my GLD long under the bus, at a modest profit from Friday, and I've taken some handsome profits in DIG and SSO. I'm holding on to all fourteen of my lottery longs – – the sixteen in my 401-k are all in the green (the two extra being OIH and GDX, both long as well).

0928-spygld

Can’t Trust That Day

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Happy new week to everyone – a week where we kiss September good-bye (well, actually, where we punch it and throw it down the stairwell) and welcome (*sigh*) October.

As you're aware, what lies ahead is really all tied up in what the dollar does. I think the long-term view of EUR/USD points downward, and so in turn I'm going to go full-on bear within the next couple of weeks (at this point, I've only got the upper half of the costume on). The medium-term view of the EUR/USD, shown below, could be construed as mildly bullish, as long as it stays above that line I've drawn.

0928-eurfar

Taking a closer look, things seem more vulnerable – – just the same as with equities. The market is on a downward tilt (again, short term) so I'm going to be keeping very tight stops on my OIH, DIG, and GLD long positions.

0928-eurclose

The quality of the comments over the course of the weekend was even higher than usual. If you've got some time to spare and haven't done so, I'd suggest you thumb through the past couple of days' worth of comments; there are some real gems in there.

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