My mind has been hung up on February 5th for a long time now, since that was the high-water mark of my portfolio. Since then, I've been just having a terrible time, and I keep visiting and re-visiting what I could have done better. (Hindsight tends to cause this kind of torment, since we don't have the benefit of such wisdom in real time).
This morning, I started going through the posts from that fateful day, and the post that Fujisan wrote on that weekend just about knocked me out of my seat. Keep in mind, this post was from a month ago - – in it, she suggested that we could be in a Gartley Bearish Pattern, and she laid out a possible path for the SPY based on this pattern. Below is the original image from a month ago:
At the time, my reaction to reading her post was disappointment. After all, the party was just getting started! I had covered many shorts, but I was still very short, and the notion of the market lurching higher for another month was disquieting. Upon reflection – particularly given Fujisan's many insightful posts before – I now know that such prognostications should be given great heed.
Let's see what the SPY actually did….
The rightmost arrow is, of course, a projection and not reality – – but it is the natural continuation of the pattern Fujisan laid out. Tomorrow morning's jobs report is clearly going to send the market one way or the other. If it provides a catalyst for a lurch down, that will simply add more credence to Fujisan's remarkable post.
