Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

COT Report Week Ending 3/1 (by

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The COT Report for the week ending March 1, 2011 is a rather interesting one. Most important, oil looks poised for further upside.  The commercial net position has gone extremely net short (remember, commercial shorts strength and buys weakness).  Copper on the other hand looks to be rolling over in terms of how commercial traders are positioned.  Both of these should put downside pressure on the SPX.

The USD on the other hand is a tricky one to read.  There are two USD charts below, one of commercial net and another non reporting net (small retail).  Both of these charts imply further USD weakness but non reporting has gone short rather aggressively which could be the fuel needed for a decent squeeze in the face of the excessive talk about the end of the USD. Additionally the divergence in positions between commercial and non reporting is at its widest in well over a year. The group think trade is further downside weakness but the opposite may in fact happen.  On the other hand the USD did just break a three year trend line.






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Ichimoku Updates

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As of 2pm Friday, a look at the ichimoku cloud charts (from Jan 2010) shows that none of the indexes have broken; i.e. all are above their support zone:







For those of you old enough to remember what a bear market looks like, here is the cloud chart of the S&P500 since 2007:


Relative to the bull-rush of the past of the past 6 months, individual names do appear to have either broken down, or seem to be teetering on the edge:

MRK: Merck


ODP: Office Depot


DPS: Dr Pepper Snapple


In that imaginary future, when the market tide goes out, names like these should be left high and dry.