Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looks like a Duck, Walks Like a Duck … (by Leaf_West)

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I hope everyone is enjoying this bounce off of the recent lows  …. I thought I would f*ck with everyone's minds some more by putting up a comparison between the S&P500 index currently and the topping action in 2007.

S&P versus 2007

S&P versus 2007_data

The reference points line up pretty nicely in terms of days from the starting point (end of the correction going into the last rally).  I extrapolated forward the 2007 pattern to get the projected dates along with the index levels.  The new high in 2007 was exactly 1.0% above the previous high … very acceptable as a double top retest.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Happy Birthday, Slope!

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It seems incredible, but Slope of Hope sprang to life six years ago today. I first started this blog during a profoundly happy time in my life – – I had just sold Prophet two months before, and I was enjoying a vacation in Cancun with my family. At my wife's urging, I started a personal trading diary as a blog. My last sentence on that first post was "The real question is going to be if I'm going to find enough time to do regular posts!". I guess I found the time!

I've learned a few things about blogging in the six years that have passed since that first post. A few tidbits of wisdom are:

+ You can't please everyone – I confess that I'm a person who likes being liked, but when you get a self-selecting group of traders who are going to have all kinds of personalities and quirks, there's going to be conflict. I have tried to run as decent an establishment as possible, but over the years, there have been plenty of folks who have moved on for various reasons. My heart's in the right place, and I try to make Slope welcoming for all, but I've learned that finding a good middleground is a big challenge.

+ Culture Counts – Part of the reason for Slope's popularity and longevity, I think, is because it's a relatively peaceful oasis in the wild, wild west of trading blogs. Some of our brethren trading sites are a cross between Lord of the Flies and Animal House, and my desire is for Slope to be a place where traders can share ideas, stories, anecdotes, travails, and ideas. I want Slope to be a place where I feel comfortable and where I can safely assume most others are comfortable as well, and I think we've achieved that.

+ The blog will ebb and flow with the market – I know this is perceived as a bearish blog, and the traffic shows that. During the (all-too-brief) Japanese-led dip in the market earlier this month, traffic on the blog nearly doubled. Now that things are moving higher in the market again, traffic has softened. I've learned not to take it personally. There are a lot of fair weather friends on Slope.

I am deeply grateful for three groups of people. First, to those of you who have stuck with me through thick and thin and are still here, you have my deepest gratitude and respect. Second, to that "vast silent majority" that comes here every day to anonymously enjoy the blog, I offer my thanks, but I still encourage you to get active in our wonderful, friendly comment section! Third, to those of you who recognize that the only compensation I get from this blog is from clicking of ads which interest you (whether I mention it or not) – thank you for your clicking finger's hard work!

This blog has changed my life, mostly for the better, and as we enter our seventh year – – surely a profoundly rare feat in the world of trading blogs – – may the trading gods smile upon us Slopers and grant us an abundant harvest. Thank you for being here for me, and for each other.


Moment of Truth

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This has been quite a month. For five brief days, the market was finally swooning, but on March 16th, it flipped right around and has recaptured the whole of the nuclear-disaster-plunge.

I have been trying to take advantage of higher prices by shorting at current levels, and one index I am watching especially closely is $MSH, the technology index. If this topping pattern plays out, we'll easily take out March's lows. If we cross above that horizontal line, however, it'll simply be more frustration and pain for the bears.