Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Goldman Weakening
Potential Doughnut Breakout
I'm back to more of a blended portfolio – 25% long, 75% short, overall only 52% committed. One of my longs is Krispy Kreme which, if it can muster its way past that modest resistance represented by the red line, could move meaningfully higher.
Checking Up on the 30yr/2yr Yield Curve & GSR
Dear Slopers, this is a chart I have looked at a few times in the recent past, since the curve began topping. As long as the gold-silver ratio (GSR) declines, the casino is open for business. Will the curve lead this time? The reference to 'Otto' is regarding an exchange I had with a pal last week about Prechter's credibility.
Just looking at this for the first time in a while, and I don't like it one bit. Readers are free to have their own opinions.
Everybody's getting bullish again, and the excuse is relief post-Japan, as decent economic numbers roll in (in some areas). This is not an Armageddon blog and I am not a perma bear writer. The fact is however, that the curve has turned down strongly, as it did in 2008, pre-crash. Yet the Gold-Silver ratio has not yet responded (and may not, but then again…) by signaling an intense and acute liquidity suckage.
I am just saying, you have profits? It's legal to book some of 'em. Cash is a position along with whatever else one favors. Me? I will wait for HUI to confirm something one way or the other. I am bullish the gold stocks either way, but then again, I can stand 50 to 100 point swings on the HUI because I manage risk. Probably sad (for me) to say, but this may include short silver once again, although more likely I'll look to book cash and short other areas.
Sometimes it seems to be a curse looking at these below the deck indicators because they can sometimes scare the crap out of me while the party up on the upper deck rolls on. Punch bowl and all.
Sometimes I feel a bit like Prechter, poor discredited and lampooned soul that he is. Last week's thing with Otto sticks with me, and I do not like the surety with which bulls hold to their case. I was weened on Prechter, Hoye and yeah, a bunch of crazy gold bugs. Thus, I do not have such a sure feeling that policy makers can/or will continue to promote the inflation, uninterrupted. I have to remind myself that I was generally bullish when many of today's loudest, most staunch bulls were sucking their thumbs.
So to repeat, I don't like this chart. It may be nothing, but it may be something.
The Push Continues
In just over a week, the Dow has zoomed nearly 700 points higher. It's incredible how all the woes of last Wednesday seem to have vanished.
The VIX, in turn, has indicated the rush back to complacency.
I'm back to a very defensive posture, keeping most of my portfolio in cash.
