The latest Evil Plan is getting hammered with comments, so although you probably should be on SocialTrade like all the other cool kids, you could hang out here and chat with Slopers. I’m just slapping down a bit of what I did this Sunday.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Nazi Nail Biter………………Evil Plan 65.0 (by BDI)
Well my fellow Slope-a-Dopes, it appears Angela has the whole world in her hands (or should I say by the balls). What will she do next with those stubby Germanic mitts of hers? Let us carefully examine the recent photograph above for any clues. She is throwing her hands up in the air, with a look of abject frustration & exasperation, almost as if she is ready to give up, wash her hands of it all, and hand over the whole oppressive problem to someone else's capable hands. Perhaps even more telling, she clearly has been seriously biting her nails on those ravaged wrinkled hands. Nail-biting (onychophagia) is a common stress-relieving habit. Is she about to lose it? That face sure looks ready to explode. What pray tell will she do next? My gut tells me that she's about to throw in the hand towel?
One MILLION Comments
Long-time Slopers know what a crucial element the comments system is to the zeitgeist of this blog. Comments represent the lifeblood of Slope of Hope. It is where people share, learn, get to know one another, and help build a community.
I made the investment (of both time and money) creating my very own comments system a couple of years ago. I did so because I wasn't satisfied with the existing offerings and felt I could do a better job with my own vision of what a system would be like. At the time, I thought I could make a business out of it, but the world seems content with the likes of Disqus, so I cheerfully have kept my creation as the exclusive purvue of The Slope of Hope. And, hey, we've even got badges!
Some weeks ago, Iggy pointed out to me that it wouldn't be long before we had our one-millionth comment (hats off to Iggy for even paying attention to such things; I was clueless). So, week by week, we've been keeping an eye on when the blessed event would occur. So – – here we are today – – one MILLION comments have been posted into Slope's own system!
The lucky Sloper who made the comment was Clint AKA Fabio, and here it is, in all its glory:
Most financial blogs garner maybe a couple dozen comments a day. Here at Slope, the metric is consistently in the four-figures. I want to thank all Slopers – – especially the lunatics below who constitute the most active commenters on the site.
+ Your beloved host (me)
Thank you, everyone! Now let's get cracking on the next million comments! (Oh, and sign up for SocialTrade!)
Better Be Lucky Than Smart
We are standing at a very interesting fork on the road. Which way will it go and which road shall we take. This is important because we want to be where the puck will be next. At the same time we are aware of the danger of front running. The mind keeps telling that we are missing the last great opportunity. The meltdown is here and if we do not join, the train will leave without us. Our job is to rationally analyze all the arguments and see which one has better odds. Wining is not guaranteed. Never. That is why it is said that “better be lucky than smart”.
Back to the markets. Few days back I wrote that 1283 will be a good support area and ( http://bbfinance.blogspot.ca/2012/05/same-boring-stuff.html ) unless we see the range broken either way, it is better to sit in cash. Luckily, there is no penalty for sitting on cash, at least not yet. But now that 200DMA has been broken, will it open the floodgate to lower price? Lets us see the both sides of the argument.
Yes we will see much lower price:
- 200 DMA has been broken and the selling momentum is strong.
- Europe is getting worse and there is no sign of any intervention from ECB.
- Economy is stalling here in USA.
- Unemployment remains a major problem in USA.
- China is heading towards a hard landing.
- Commodity sector is in bear market territory.
No, we will see a bounce:
- The sentiment is too bearish.
- Commodities and Euro is over sold.
- This is an election year and election year price movement patterns are different.
- Greece is not going to leave Euro-zone because everyone knows that a Grexit will be the disaster which will make Lehman look like a trailer.
- The Fed will intervene. Bad news is good news.
These are some which I could come up with and I am sure there are many more on both sides. Given all that information, what is the verdict?
As you know, I am a believer of cycles. They come in various forms, short term, intermediate term, long term. The intermediate term cycle does not bottom till Mid-July but very short term cycle is bottoming just about now. When I combine the cycle analysis with the technical analysis I get the following picture:
- The next level of support is around 1260 and below that 1200.
- It is not going to be one straight line down.
- I expect to see a bounce starting next week but it will be just a bounce. Max. upside target remains 1360-1380.
- Selling is not over yet.
- There will be QE3 or 4 whatever you call it. But Bernanke has only two possible dates to announce, June 20 or August 1. I think it will start from August 1.
This is the road map I have in mind but the market is the boss. If it keeps going down next Monday or Tuesday, I would not fight with it. But if you have been in cash, like I have been writing all these days, you will have enough fire power to get in at excellent prices. I think we are not at the end game stage yet and we will see one more upswing before everything starts to unravel. If 1283/1285 level holds on Monday, I may do a bit of bottom fishing but that is for traders who can get in and out quickly. Absolutely not for investors. Investors better wait for good trends to develop. Do not underestimate the powers of the CBs and I think we will again see concerted efforts by all the central bankers to re-inflate the balloon.
I would like to share a chart from Bespoke. It is a kind of analog and I do not have much faith in analog. So take this with a pinch of salt.
I personally think we are following the old script of 2010 and 2011 with minor variations. Let us see how the story unfolds this year. Patience is the key.
Hope you are enjoying the weekend. Thanks for reading http://bbfinance.blogspot.com/ . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and invite others to join. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance)