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After Wednesday's FOMC interest rate announcement, press release, projections, and Q&A period with Mr. Bernanke, I decided to look at four different timeframes of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 Indices to see where they're trading at relative to each timeframe and in terms of relative strength/weakness to each other.
Each candle on the first chartgrid below represents a period of one year and the period begins in 1992. I've drawn a Fibonacci retracement on each one which begins in 2007 for the Dow and S&P, and 2002 for the Nasdaq and Russell (I didn't want to include the high of 2000 on the Nasdaq as that would distort the results of this exercise, so I chose the high and low of each of the four indices from 2002 to the present). You will notice on the Fibonacci drawing that I've shown some of the levels in bold and others in a thinner line thickness…the bold lines are the high and low, the 50% level, and non-traditional 33.3% and 66.6% levels…the thinner lines are the 38.2% and 61.8% levels. You'll see the purpose of the 33.3 and 66.6% levels in a minute.
OK, that's over. Thank Jesus (odd as that might be to utter, given the FOMC is involved). They didn't announce anything meaningful.
My disposition is as follows:
+ Took profits on longs earlier today (DV and AIR being particularly handsome);
+ Threw all remaining longs under the bus after the announcement;
+ As of this writing, I am 100% short, but only 35% committed. I am lining up new bearish positions that I'll enter slowly later today once some of the dust clears.
+ I covered my GDX and FXE short positions for nice profits and took profits on my GDX puts. My options account is all cash now.
+ IMPORTANT UPDATE– – the market is acting surprisingly robust in the face of this news. I have re-entered a series of carefully-selected longs, mostly centered in the energy sector. I am still mostly short, but not purely bearish anymore.
I am personally relieved, and I feel the chains have been unshackled from me to trade freely again. At least until the next time these doofuses have something to say.
I can't promise much in the way of beautiful expository writing today, at least until after the close, as I am hunkering down for battle with the World's Most Evil Man, Benjamin Shalom Bernanke (and his hideous lapdog, Janet Yellen).
At the moment, I'm pleased with my day – up 0.25% in the face of a totally flat market, and that's with way over 50% of my portfolio in cash! So my carefully-selected longs and shorts are doing their job.
If guest posts arrive during the battle, I'll try to get them posted, but no promises. The comment thread could get John Holmes-lengthy.
As Captain Miller said: "I'll see you on the beach!"