Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Data for Store Sales released today shows that consumers reigned in their spending for the week, "driving the year-on-year to only +1.8% for one of the lowest rates of the recovery."
This was is spite of a rise in Personal Income for the month, while the price of goods (and housing) rose. Perhaps buyers are waiting for "back-to-school" sales before they part with any extra cash…or even paying off debt.
So far today, the credit card stocks are down from yesterday's close, as Visa pulls back from yesterday's all-time high…ones to watch for any further weakness developing.
Just for a change of pace I'll mainly be using futures charts today. Not much to add to yesterday's charts on SPX with a doji at the upper bollinger band on the daily chart, and the rising wedge I showed on the 15min chart has now broken the support trendline as expected.
Rising support has also broken on the ES 60min chart on strongly negative 60min RSI divergence. If you look at the last couple of months on the chart you can see that these divergences have been a very good signal of a coming reversal:
Further to my post of June 29th, I thought I'd show where the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 Indices are currently trading in their 2012 Q3 timeframe relative to the prior quarters. In that post, I mentioned that if the Q3 candle retested the Q1 lows again, I'd be very skeptical of much of a convincing advance above this year's high during these three months.
As can be seen on the updated Quarterly charts below, the current Q3 candle did, indeed pullback, but hasn't quite retreated to the Q2 lows, although the Nasdaq came close. Instead, an "inside" candle has formed, with price near the top on the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. The Russell is the laggard in roughly the middle.
As You know, recently the market has been acting a bit more sluggish, prone to more weakness, and my own personal indicators (which I do publish on the site) projecting a new wave of weakness too. I'm more concerned than I have been of late to make sure that I'm not over extended to the long side and that any position that I do take on, shows an ability to buck the market trend should it move lower.
Below is a list of stocks that I consider nice defensive plays, and while some of them have great growth stories to them, what I am looking for is opportunities that won't overexpose you to large losses should the market move lower.
Here's my 14 Defensive Stock Plays.