Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Rough day for the bulls (understatement) and so far it has managed to bounce off of those early morning lows and forming sort of a cup and handle pattern on the 5min SPX chart.
So, let's tally it up for me on the day: I was knocked out of Agrium (AGU) at $93.7 for a 4.5% gain, sold Netflix (NFLX) at $79.45 for a -4% loss, sold Priceline (PCLN) at $659 for a 2.2% gain.
I'm still hanging in there with MDT and Facebook (FB) is showing marginal losses on the day.
As for TD Ameritrade (AMTD) – it is bouncing nicely off of major support levels, and with what appears to be, most of the day's risk behind us, this could provide a solid risk/reward opportunity. Anything into the $16's and I'll sell it before day's end (thought that would take a pretty significant rally), I plan to hold this stock overnight though.
Here's the AMTD chart.
I see analysis popping up out there refuting the bearish Descending Triangle view and in my opinion that is with good reason; it looks a lot more like a massive consolidation of previous bullishness than a topping pattern.
However, a common theme seems to be some kind of static about a QE3 'Super Sunday' (don't hold your breath) or some such noise and gold's imminent and preordained blast off, never to return to current levels as the 'banksters' take it higher and higher.
A theme seems to be that now is the time to be bullish but I have also read within the same theme that we cannot be sure that the 'banksters' will not crash gold through support first, to totally eliminate the little guy before bringing it higher.
The Housing market hits resistance from its peak in 2005 coinciding with a 23.6% Fib retracement level.
Equities and EURUSD have both been crumbling overnight. The potential double-top on ZB and TLT is also looking a good deal less impressive on ZB this morning. I've been mentioning regularly that the overall setup on bonds is still bullish, and if TLT clears the potential double-top area that will be even more the case.
On ES I mentioned the possibility of a double-top forming on Friday morning and that's starting to look pretty good. ES is extremely oversold on the 60min chart, and we may well get a decent bounce soon, but there are two key support levels to watch if we do get much more downside. The first is rising support from the June low in the 1335 area, which is also a potential H&S neckline. The second and far more important support level is at 1320. Anything below there delivers a lower low and triggers a double-top target in the 1265 area, effectively for a test of the June lows: