Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wackity Smackity Doo

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Given the action in the last hour of today's trading, the notion of going completely flat ahead of the almost assured 72 hours of complete insanity that will encompass next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday is looking increasingly alluring.

The tension in the market is almost palpable. Each side is trying to wrest control from the other. An hour before the close, the bears were getting the upper paw. The latest bailout rumor, however, snatched control away from the bears and put it back into the hands of the bulls. 

So, since Sunday, the market has been UP (Sunday), DOWN (Monday), UP (Tuesday), DOWN (Wednesday), UP (Thursday). Anyone want to guess about tomorrow's direction?

In any event, I am 40% in cash, and my positions are split about 20% bull (all energy-related) and 80% bear (all tiny individual equities).

I think I'm going to work on a new SocialTrade video this afternoon, because I want to bring the introductory video up-to-date with all the new features. I think this will be my last market-related post of the day.


Wave Count Pointing Lower (by Avi Gilburt)

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Tonight I am going to go out on a limb and say that I think we will see at least the 1280’s and potentially lower by tomorrow morning. In fact, I would not be surprised to even see the 1230-1245 region by the 19th of the month.

Based upon our current chart, while it is still "possible" that we have bottomed in a green wave ii – which, if you noticed, I took off the chart this evening — I think that it is a much lower probability than as of this afternoon. Rather, if a wave 2 is going to bottom, it would be at a much lower level. Of course, if the market is over the 1321 level by tomorrow, it clearly tells us that we are heading up to 1352, but I don’t think that is the most likely scenario into tomorrow. But, this is the overnight risk I mentioned earlier, and is why I suggested to be hedged tonight if you remained short overnight.