Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Why Your First Words Matter – Part One (by Mark St.Cyr)

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Personally I can’t recall so many real-time lessons at such high levels in Public Relations occurring all at once. There are so many I thought I’d share some thoughts and observations.

If there’s anything that companies, governments, executives, and more put on the back burner is exactly what they’ll do when the excrement hits the proverbial fan. They’ll give lip service to it. They’ll have plans locked away in secret locations. But what they won’t do is what they should do; Be honest in what has happened, State contrition, Put plans in place where it should never happen again, and MEAN every word of it!


Summer Bar

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What an interesting week that was! (Closing portfolio: 80% committed, 40% long, 60% short).

Please be warned that Tim Summer Mode is approaching fast. Next week, I'll be not-quite-as-available as normal due to my annual trek to Fallen Leaf Lake (note to newer Slopers: my warnings about me being "on vacation" can be ignored, since otherwise no one would know the difference, since I am obsessively devoted to this blog; all the same, I feel strangely compelled to tell people this every blessed year).

In any case, SocialTrade is doing great, the new Slope is coming along briskly, and it was a profitable week. Not a bad way to close things out. Drink up, Slopers!


Commodities Have Room to Recover

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It's been a pretty boring day. If you don't believe me, look at the ES for the past 24 hours…..


We have just been grinding around 1323 or so.

At the moment, the overall market is up 0.53% and I am down only 0.09%, which is thrilling for me since I am entirely short. It shows my shorts are not being overly prone right now to market strength, which is all I ask of my little guys.


Markets Hit By BullS–t.

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For the better part of last seven days I am writing about a day like yestoday.  From “ BullS**t Ad Infinitum” on June 14th till Wednesday, I have been urging readers not to get caught up in the meaningless gyration of the stock market and for those of you who cared to listen, congrats for being in cash and safe. This is my two pence service to the ordinary investors who are regularly taken to cleaners by the Wall St. Pandits and various talking heads.

I have written on last Monday that if SPX holds 1300-1320 level by this weekend, we will see a higher high. It was a bold statement at that time, when indexes were ripping higher to talk about a lower level. And yet we are almost there now. Yesterday I wrote about 1365 by 1st week of July and a reader asked me if I meant 1265. I really meant 1365. May be even higher, up-to 1380. So it is a bold statement even now but  1st we wait to  see where it ends in a day or two. Tomorrow we might see a dead cat bounce before some more selling. Ideally I would like it to fill the gap on the way up which I have circled below.


As much as the up move was a fake move, you cannot trust this down move either. Basically we have been in a range for quite a while as highlighted by the rectangle.

How the folks are going to react to today’s selling? Till yesterday, there were talks of end of correction, start of new bull phase because the market did not sell off after the QE disappointment. Will they short the market again now that GS has recommended its clients to short the market with a target of 1285? If GS has recommended a short trade I would rather take the opposite route, more so when short term cycle is indicating a bottom tomorrow. Let’s keep in mind that cycles are not an exact science and the bottom may well come next week. But taken everything together, I do not expect a huge sell from here immediately. As I said yesterday, there is still Quarter end window dressing to be done and beginning of the month 401K money to be stolen.

I am holding to the GLD for now to see where it goes till the 1st week of July. I kept it as insurance, just in case Bernanke went crazy and declared QE. I do not expect it to do much till August but if gold falls below $1530, I will get out of it. On the other hand, I am thinking of taking a short position in Bond through TBT. That is going to be another long term play. Despite every effort Bernanke is making to keep the interest rate low, it will soon get out of control. Either interest rate goes up or inflation goes up. Bearded one has painted himself in a corner and may have only six more months. You see, I am more generous than Soros. He gave three months to the Europeans. I am giving six months to the Fed. I think it is going to far worse than what we have seen in 2008. This time there will be no country in the world to print and save.

I got quite a few response / email to my last night’s trivia and I must confess, you guys know your history. To sharpen your understanding of history, you may want to read the book” This time is different” .

Thanks for reading . Please forward / re-tweet / post it on your wall and join me in twitter. (Twitter @ BBFinanceblog)(Stocktwits: Worldoffinance)  


Moments of Truth (by Springheel Jack)

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As SPX was testing rising support from the low yesterday I did a chart on the SPX 15min showing the three important short term support levels on SPX to watch. I was going to post this on twitter but that was down for quite a while yesterday so I posted it on slope and BlueChipBullDog instead. The first level was that rising support from the low of course, the second level was at the IHS neckline in the 1335 area, and the third level was in the 1325 area, that I gave as a line in the sand yesterday morning on the basis mainly that none of the five reversal IHSes that made target since 2008 had retraced more than ten points below the neckline. Here is that chart: