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Happy New Year everybody. Like everyone else, I am reflecting on last year, and what the new year holds. In my view, it will be a year of divergences and great opportunity. Many people (the sheep and the hyper aware) are convinced that the crash is guaranteed for the U.S. in 2015. But I hold a different view.
As the largest debtor, largest amount of debt denominated in our currency worldwide, and current account deficit holder, we will enjoy incredible advantages when the dollar carry trade unwinds. (more…)
China is to 2014 as Japan was to 1989 – – that is, the global savior of all things financial, including real estate. Here in the Bay Area, skyrocketing home prices (especially for trophy properties) are partially attributed to rich Chinese buyers looking for a safe (!) haven. There’s no way I’d buy into it, but the Chinese stock market looks poised for possible strength as it enters a new year:
It looked like a few rats tried to jump ship as the bell rang on 2014. But it is hard to trust any one day or week as a guide during the holidays so we can just call it what it was, a down week within a general US market uptrend.
The strong uptrend however, is on the longer-term charts. Some dailies are in down trends kicked off by the pre-Santa correction (ref. the NDX below and the NYSE, as two examples). As we noted in NFTRH, the Russell 2000 was the first to go daily trend up into what is often ‘small cap season’. It has got a big fat gap though, and a test of the MA 50 seems in store.
Nasdaq 100 is relatively sloppy, remains in a daily downtrend and also has a big gap to fill. Of course, this index had a lot of momo in it into December and can fall quite a way without losing its bull market. The next two support levels are shown. As an aside, I sold Tech Generals INTC, MSFT and AAPL into the post-FOMC rise with a level of remorse. Now? Not so much. They remain on watch pending coming interpretation of this pullback. (more…)
That was an impressive decline on Wednesday, and that was a match to the bearish long term stats for the last trading day of the year. The stats today are neutral to very slightly bearish, though it has been a decent performer in recent years, and the gap up today is a promising start for bulls if it can be sustained.
Short term a falling channel was established at the lows on Wednesday and if that holds, then the next obvious move would be a retracement to channel resistance in the 2075-80 area. SPX 5min chart: