Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Bearish Close to January

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On Wednesday 7th January I wrote a post called ‘Suspended Sentence‘ in which I was talking about some statistics I had compiled showing that since 1970 there had been eight instances where SPX had closed down more than 2% in the first three trading days of the year. Of those eight instances the three that closed above that close on the third day all went on to have decent years, but the five that closed below that level all had difficult years, with the two best being effectively flat (up 3% and 1%)on the year, and the other three down 10%, 11% and 39% (2008) on the year respectively. That close was at 2002.61, and the close on Friday was at 1994.99, so SPX is on the bearish track in 2015 on this stat, and that also fits my expectations for the year.