The Principal Risk

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Here it is, Sunday evening, and I am loaded to the teeth with short positions. They tend to be very resource– and energy-oriented, and also emerging markets-oriented, so I’m not that rattled that the ES is, as of this moment, up 5.25. I will say, however, that my principal concern is that recent market history shows a very clear range in the ES, and we are at the bottom of it. We must break to the downside to cease this pattern, but until we do, the “obvious” direction is up to the top of the range again.