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Short Applied Materials (AMAT)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Following Up on that Break
On Tuesday, I wrote this post, which declared that the ES uptrend was broken. Now I want to say two things very clearly at the outset. First off, the last couple of months have been very hard on me, and earlier this week in particular was devastatingly hard from an emotional standpoint (Northy and I were holding onto each other for dear life at times). So I confess I was reaching a bit to look for any “good news” for the bears, which was a motivation behind the post (although I absolutely was sincere about the trendline break).
Second, the comments I’m going to share below are in no way meant to disrespect or “call out” the folks replying, because they were said respectfully (and God knows I’ve been wrong more often than right in my lifetime). At the time, they did sting a bit, because – – let’s face it – – charting is my life, and if my interpretation of trendlines isn’t valid (or if trendlines themselves are pointless), well, I might as well go work in Home Depot.
Gap And …….
I posted the chart below on twitter last night showing the falling wedge that has formed on SPX from the current swing high, and commenting that this setup will usually be a bull flag that would resolve up into at least a retest of that previous high. I considered the various aspects of this setup and gave 80% odds in favor of a retest of the current 2011 swing high.
However I did note that when a setup like this does break down then that would often take the form of a breakaway gap down through support that was not filled. SPX has gapped down through daily middle band support at the open today, and that gap has not yet been filled. If this is a serious support break then that gap most likely won’t fill. If it does fill and we see a daily close today at or over the daily middle band (currently at 2075/6), then support will have held and that would strongly favor a retest of 2111 next week. SPX 60min chart:
Gold Breaks Out Again
You’d think the world was losing faith in the central bankers or something.
