Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Classic Cliffhangers

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I’ve been re-reading some bestselling tomes from my economics library and was very struck reading the foreword of one at how the same concerns tend to come up again and again. The writer was talking about how world trade was reaching a point of exhaustion, how foreign competition was hollowing out western economies, and how the cycle of boom and bust has reached a point where it seems to have stabilised into a flatline of permanent and chronic depression, that seems likely to extend indefinitely into the future until drastic economic changes are made. Worrying stuff from Friedrich Engels, who was way ahead of most commentators saying the same thing nowadays as he was writing his foreword to the english translation of Karl Marx’s Das Kapital back in 1886. I’m on the edge of my seat to see how it all turns out when Karl Marx gets around to finishing the sequel, which is racing to publication with George R R Martin’s next book in his Game Of Thrones series.

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Dead Duck

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I honestly never thought I’d be short Twitter, but it’s turning out to be one of my favorite positions. The reason I doubted it, of course, is because it’s already lost EIGHTY PERCENT of its peak value, so it seems sort of destroyed already.

However, it’s pretty evident the company’s business model sucks out loud (sort of like – I dunno – SNAP – which, surprise, surprise, I am also short) and I see firm support at $0.00.

0310-twtr

Counter-Assault

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After a few days of weakness (horrors!), it’s no surprise at all to be witnessing some green this morning, with ES and NQ using the relatively strong jobs report as their latest excuse to rally. This is totally expected, and as I told my Plus subscribers yesterday afternoon, I expect the counter-attack in crude oil to be even stronger. It’ll be a magnificent trap.

As for today, we’ll see if the strength builds on itself, as it sometimes jobs on these jobs report days, or if it starts to wither (which would really start to freak the public out). My principal message is that broken trendlines do matter.

0310-es