Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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- With the disclaimer being that as an intuitive and more artful TA using inter-market ratio measuring tools and the like, I am the furthest thing from an accomplished cycles analyst. Indeed, I am probably less adept at it than you are.
That behind us, I was fooling around with Stockcharts.com’s cycles tool and came up with this monthly view of the S&P 500, with the thick black lines being a 30 month cycle and the thin green lines being a 12 month cycle, each starting from the 2000 market top.
Each cycle has caught some pretty significant turning points with the 30 mo. having caught the 2000 and 2007 tops along with the 2002 bottom and the pre-corrective 2015 top. The 12 mo. cycle seems to have been more adept at spotting interim turning points but it did catch the 2009 bottom.
It only took three days as a public company to do so, but 100% of the public buyers of SNAP have now lost money. (And if you mention the $17 offer price, you have no clue what you’re talking about). The stock’s price and the company’s user base will have something in common soon – – both predominantly in the teens.
I’m weary of nabbing all these pea-sized profits, but I’m taking what I can get these days: I sold out my TWM position this morning since we came right to important support once more. Until this line breaks, it’s just going to keep bouncing.
I was saying in our monthly public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net yesterday that the kind of setup we saw at the close on Friday sometimes resulted in an opening gap through support, and we have seen that on SPX this morning. If you’d like to see that the recording is posted on this page here.
This is a potential breakaway gap down and that is potentially very bearish until the gap from Friday’s close at 2383.12 is filled. Below there is strong gap support from 2363.64 and a break below that opens lower targets, with the first of those being the next open gap below just under the possible H&S neckline in the 2352/3 area. The main trendline target now is larger rising wedge support, currently in the 2336 area, but we would usually some a topping pattern for to take SPX lower, and I don’t see one yet. The hourly RSI 14 sell signal is not close to making target. SPX 60min chart:
Back in my beloved Palo Alto on Sunday, I noticed it began to rain while the sun was shining. The milquetoast Californians would describe this as “raining while the sun was shining”, but we far more interesting Louisiana natives give it its proper name: “the devil is beating his wife.”