American Idle

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Welcome to a new day of suspense. I was reading this article last night, and it suggested an 85% chance that the threat of big new tariffs was a total bluff. Indeed, the likelihood of the “risk off” kind of event that would thrill me is a mere 15%.


From last night’s post, nearly 70% of Slopers seem equally doubtful that the Trump administration will stick to his guns:


My official opinion is “I dunno”. The past decade has been such an abusive nightmare for the bears, at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if both sides announced it was all just a big gag, and they had already signed a 0% tariffs deal for the next half-millennium.

Of course, I would be over-the-moon if, as Dutch predicts, Trump sticks to his guns on this one. As I’m typing this, all we’ve done is unwound that ridiculous end-of-day ramp we had yesterday near the close (thanks, Mnuchin!) and at this point are simply counting down the hours until midnight on Thursday. It’s going to be quite a show.


And just in case you think Chairman Xi gives a shit about Trump’s election prospects, just remember this fact: