Trade Update (by Binkius Hippo)

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The amazing thing is that neither Trump nor the American people know what they want from the trade war. China knows exactly what it wants and needs.

Trump seems to want “even” trade with China. Both countries export/import the exact same amount from each other.

The American people want jobs. Trump’s “even” trade goal won’t help that. Reduction in Chinese imports will be filled completely by new trade with: Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand. It will all be more expensive to the American consumer than trade with China because Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand are all more expensive than China (but vastly and by American standards, incomprehensibly cheaper than any American manufacturing).

Trump’s “even” trade goal will simply move production to other countries more expensive than China but much less expensive than the USA. Then Trump can have “even” trade wars with: Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand.  Still no jobs for Americans.

If you want jobs for Americans, you must raise tariffs on ALL goods from ALL countries to 200-300% of import cost. Possibly more on high-tech imports (get ready for the $10,000 made-in-USA iPhone).

China knows exactly what it wants: IP and IC (integrated circuits). Trump just went nuclear with threats of withholding IC from Huawei. If the USA actually effectively embargoes China’s supply of high-end IC then China has to get rid of Trump. China will try to crash the American stock market without crashing the world economy. My guess is very slow, very targeted currency devaluation. China wants to get rid of Trump, not destroy the world.

The 2020 election will be Russian-cyber for Trump and Chinese-cyber for any Democrat. This will be the first war waged on the USA mainland for over 200 years.