Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Last week, I decided to drop my trading to virtually nothing, and I intend to remain in that mode until the end of the quarter. Just six days to go!
As you might deduce from Slope’s Woulda Shoulda Coulda page, I’m kind of obsessed with looking in the rearview mirror and seeing What Might Have Been. Poisonous, yes, but sometimes it yields insights.
I have a rather sophisticated and very personal way of “looking backwards” besides this. Sometimes I’ll preserve my spreadsheet of positions into a file of its own and take a peek at it from time to time to see what the P&L is compared to what it used to be.
“If only we had some way of knowing this was coming.” Yeah, well………a thoughtful Sloper sent me a TED talk that none other than Bill Gates gave five years ago which essentially described precisely what we’re dealing with now. The interesting bit is that in his “scare the hell out of the children” moment, he offered up this dreadful scenario:
Something just occurred to me that I thought I’d just throw out for group discussion.
When I think about the “big bounce” and the “bigger plunge” that I keep talking about, just about every stock I look at has a future resembling this. (This happens to be Ford, symbol F, but it honestly makes no difference).
It seems that folks assume that since we’re at the cusp of yet another massive bailout, it’ll be “off to the races” on equities, and a stampede toward new lifetime highs. Allow me to share the chart below of the S&P 500 back in the financial crisis. I’ve marked with an arrow the point at which TARP was being voted on in Congress, kind of like the Corporate Welfare Act is right now. Just sayin’.