|
Imagine it’s 30 years ago. Someone comes to you and offers you a crystal ball. You gaze inside to see the future. Instead of the Jetsons and Star Wars, you’re entertained, saddened, and surprised by what you see. Each of these is in no particular order… |
What are the most shocking world wide events that rip through markets and plant the seeds of global unrest?
- One of the greatest bull markets the world has ever known
- The fall of communism in countries like the Soviet Union and East Germany
- A modern day repeat of the great tulip bubble, only this time with virtual companies that have no income (dot com meltdown)
- The destruction of the World Financial Center by a terrorist event (the US launches a multi-decade campaign to seek redemption)
- A modern day repeat of the great tulip bubble, only this time with home ownership (the great recession)
- One of the greatest bear markets the world has ever known
- One of the greatest bull markets the world has ever known (if only they take out prior highs)
- Everyone now carries little tiny magic boxes that allow them to communicate with anyone else in the world and answer virtually any question in a matter of seconds
And what companies endure the exhilirating and painful business cycles over these 30 years?
What products and services become the most powerful?
- Computers and those little tiny magic boxes (AAPL)
- Software that operates everyone else’s computers, but not the little tiny magic boxes (MSFT)
- Silicon wafers that make everyone’s computers possible (INTC)
- Searching for stuff (GOOG)
- Classified Ads (EBAY)
- Coupons (Groupon)
- Keeping in touch with friends (Facebook)
Of course, 30 years later, you would also see in the crystal ball that the same ruler still presides over Libya, but you would not have known to pay attention to that. Will be interesting to see how this one shakes out.
P.S.
In our prior post, we had some fun with math on calculating QE2 induced ES targets. Springheel Jack’s been watching similar targets. Our post was very timely in that the ES immediately sold off as soon as the article posted. Where’s that Chocolate Rain video? Nonetheless, 1310s remain as a key S/R level. We broke below it, broke above, broke below it, broke above… So, it shall remain our line in the sand as an ongoing reference point. If ES stays above 1310s, then those longer-term QE2 targets remain intact.
