Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Jobsian Tribute from a Sloper

By -

I keep getting the sense that the world is treating the Jobs departure as a funeral instead of a retirement, but let's face it, Steve Jobs is Apple, and it rightfully feels like a funeral. A Sloper, Mark St. Cyr, write me this morning, and he had posted a touching tribute to Mr. Jobs. Mark has given me permission to share it here.

Today many will wake to the news Mr. Jobs has resigned as CEO. He will most surely be granted another position to stay,and remain part of Apple® as he has asked. It appears his health must be getting the better of him. For many of us who’ve run companies large or small, or tried to start anything from scratch based solely on our vision of what we thought should be, and not accept the status quo regardless of the odds. It was Steve Jobs struggles, and triumphs that was for many of us what we thought about when we too were having our own dark hours.

This is a man who revolutionized everything we now take for granted, computers, music, movies, telephones, and to some degree business itself. But that’s not the important stuff for many. This is a man who at every stage where he could have kicked back and retired with mega bucks refused. He put everything on the line everyday, his money, his reputation, and at times I bet even more, and lost many times. However we’re talking about him today because he turned every loss into a turning point for even greater success. What an amazing story, period.

Although Apple® the company is a wonder of a success in so many ways (It also just became the largest market cap company in world dethroning Exxon Mobil!) it’s the passion, the vision, the determination of Steve Jobs that I personally hold in reverent respect.

Thank you Mr. Jobs.

FocalEquity Stock and ETF Model Update

By -

The stock model is updated to reflect today’s market move. You can download the entire model Excel output file at FocalEquity.com. 

For 08/25/2011 trading day,  we are going to focus a long position in EMC (EMC Corp) and a short position in RIMM (Research in Motion) Charts are provided by contributor Roller Coaster.

According to our ranking model, EMC’s valuation is cheap at the moment based on our book, PE and PE to Growth related composite value factors. In addition, our contrarian indicator indicates more upside potential for the stock. EMC has a Quintile Ranking of 1 ( 1 – best, 5 – worst).  The stock is beginning to move up, and the MACD histogram is ticking upwards.  EMC may now fill the gap.

EMC long 
RIMM (Research in Motion) ranks poorly within the FocalEquity Stock Ranking model (a Quintile Ranking of 4 ( 1 – best, 5 – worst)) because of the issues related to its earning composite factors. RIMM’s earnings have been terrible. In addition the stock rallied sharply from its low in early August and its contrarian indicator within the model is no longer attractive. It’s now at the 50 EMA and at the gap, which can serve as resistance.  RIMM can continue to make lower lows from here.

RIMM short 

ETF Model Update:

You can download the entire ETF model Excel output file at FocalEquity.com. 

Today we like to highlight ZSL (Proshares Ultrashort Silver). With the huge rally in precious metals in recent trading days, silver is likely going to face another severe round of correction along with gold.  ZSL has made a lower low, and the MACD is showing some divergence in the histogram.  The histogram appears like it will make a zero line crossover, and the MACD lines appear like they are about to make a crossover.

ZSL etf 
Using the latest data inputs, the ETF model is giving a mixed signal regarding bull and bear ETFs. The overall tilt is to the bullish side. You should carefully look at each trading signal and ask us questions on our blog if you are uncertain.

DailyModelScoreFile_20110825 

Jackson Hole Week Day 4 (by Springheel Jack)

By -

Yesterday was one of those slightly spooky days when everything I post in the morning delivers. The ES IHS and the silver trendline break delivered so well I've saved both as textbook models of how these should look. Today is going to be tougher, and tomorrow morning of course we have the complete wild card of Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, which could spark off a big rally in the event that he announces QE3, or spark off a big decline in the event that he just waffles about the underlying strength of the economy. What do the charts say? Well it's a mixed bag this morning.

The first thing to note is that not far above there are some important unfilled gaps on SPX, NDX and RUT. Here's how that looks on SPX, with the gap at 1193.80 and important resistance at 1185:

 On NDX the gap is at 2181.62, and I have important resistance at 2160:

 On RUT the gap is at 704.03, and I have important resistance at 698:

Will the gaps fill? Perhaps, but the overnight action on ES doesn't look that promising and Steve Jobs' resignation as CEO of Apple last night might drag down NDX particularly. On ES I've been watching for a break of the very decent quality channel support trendline on ES and saw that overnight. The trendline was then briefly recovered to test yesterday's high and then lost again. ES is in a consolidation rectangle and that might still break up, but the trendline break still looks weak, and the bulls might well get a very nasty surprise today if ES breaks down from that rectangle:

Silver has been a top performer this week, from a technical standpoint, and after the break down from the support trendline I highlighted yesterday morning made it precisely to my target channel support trendline at 3876 (on SI) overnight. This is the likely reversal area if silver is going to reverse back up and it has bounced there so far. I posted a chart on gold last night that you can see here showing support at 1725 (on GC) and gold went through it overnight to 1705. That wasn't bullish and you can see that there is also an unfilled gap on GC now much further below. Here's how the silver chart (SI) looks now:

Bonds fell hard too but are still well short of my support area and possible H&S neckline at 135. 135 would also be almost exactly at the 38.2% fib retracement of this last powerful wave up from late July. I still like 135 as my main target here, but ZB has consolidated overnight and is showing some positive divergence on the 60min RSI. It could bounce here today:

I have very mixed feelings about direction today and am watching the consolidation rectangle on ES for immediate direction. If it breaks up then I'll be looking for the gap fills on SPX, NDX and RUT. Even if that happens though there are now some real signs of weakness appearing and I'll be watching for reversal. If ZB (30yr Treasury futures) makes it to 35 I'll be looking for a reversal there. That might well happen if the gaps on the equity indices are filled. If silver breaks channel support then I'll be looking for another leg down on PMs which would most likely be bullish for equities. Copper and USD aren't moving much and so are giving little clue as to direction.