Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

JPM Takes It On The Chin.

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Although I am normally critical of the constant negative reporting of ZH, today I have to say kudos to them.  They do bring out the dark side of the Wall St like no other. Two of their reports stand out today.

  • The going on of JPM and
  • The impending bond default of Greece.

My only point is: do not get caught up in headlines or conspiracy theories while trading or investing- pay attention to risk management. Stock market is not economy. Wall St. is a giant casino and the house always wins.



Lucy in the Sky with Dimon

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I guess all the chatter and excitement (and e-mini weakness) tonight is based on JP Morgan (JPM – duh) announcing a potentially gigantic loss in one of their funds (or some such; I couldn't really care less about the particulars; what counts is that it's nuking equity futures right now). 

I'd say firm support is at about $33. It won't get there tomorrow, but it's well on its way.


Do I need to remind anyone here that the first serious tremors of the (marvelous, delicious, awesome) financial crisis of 2008 was when some big funds started blowing up late in 2006 and early in 2007? Those were the canary in the coal mine.

Of course, Jamie (who the hell names a boy JAMIE? The only "Jamie" I've known in my life was a transvestite, and yes, I'm serious) is probably waiting for Bernanke to bail him out with a check from you and me. What are friends for?

UPDATE: Home page of ZH, baby!



Dear Abby

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A reader sent me a link to a video of Slope mascot AJC. I didn't want to watch it, but I glanced at the text summary, which stated:

"Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs' senior investment strategist, says shares are set to hold value for the long run but may cheapen over the summer."

OK, so this lady (it's a lady, right?) gets paid millions upon millions of dollars for observations like this. So let's disect this a bit. She (again – sorry to trouble you – we're talking about a she, correct?) says that shares are set to hold value for the long run but may cheapen over the summer.

What does "set to hold value" mean, exactly? What percentage volatility is she talking about?

What is long-run? A year? Five years? A decade?

And stocks may cheapen? May? So if they don't cheapen, she only said "may", so she's off the hook. And if they do cheapen, she predicted it. Oh, and how by how much? I "may" join the Blue Man Group next year. But I probably won't.

I mean, hell, I can make these predictions too. Stocks may rise in value over the summer and may dip in the fall, but overall, equities should outperform in the long-term. There. I did it. Where's my check?

Checking Google's auto-fill, by the way, we can see that the Internet population has two prominent questions on its mind, both of which – curiously – are related to matrimony. I shall not comment further on this topic.


Glory Days

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Take a look at the chart below. I've deliberately left out the price axis. Pretty amazing chart, isn't it? Over a decade of breathtakingly steady price gains. What could it be? It looks a lot like Apple these days, doesn't it?


Nope. It's Cisco. Formerly the most valuable company on the entire planet. Formerly the most important quarterly earnings report among all U.S. equities. Formerly the kingmaker of the Silicon Valley.

Let's take a look at the most recent decade instead:


Incredible, isn't it? Cisco has, for nearly a dozen years, been more-or-less a twenty dollar stock. Sometimes it's a little higher; sometimes it's a little lower (like – cough – today). But on the whole, you can count the bills that come out of an ATM machine and lay each one of them down for a share of CSCO.

My point here is not that Apple is the next Cisco. No one has any idea what price Apple is going to be in the year 2022 (although, garsh, judging from what the folks on CNBC say, I guess $1,000/share is just around the corner). My point is that no stock proves better how dangerous it is to fall in love with a company. And that's all I've got to say about that.