Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fear the Top of the World

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Last Sunday, May 20, I read that in the span of three days, Mark Zuckerberg: 0529-beast

1. Took his company public, making him one of the richest men in history;

2. Saw his fiancee get her medical degree from UCSF;

3. Married the aforementioned fiance in a surprise wedding ceremony in his back yard, which is located just a few blocks from my own home.

As I read this, I confess I felt a little worried for the guy. But, wait a second, why would I worry about someone blessed with such amazing good fortune? Simple: because of all that amazing good fortune, particularly given its abundance and speed.

I guess it's the contrarian in me that worries that any situation which is so extreme is bound to reverse and at least revert to the mean (this same disposition gives me optimism when things seem awful).

And, even in the one week that has transpired since the trifecta cited above, we have all witnessed Facebook's value plunge by about 35%, and you know as well as I do that a mountain of shareholder lawsuits are bound to follow (particularly since, let's face it, the low price for the stock is probably a long, long way from here).

I seriously wish Zuck well in his marriage and his life, but whenever everything is coming up roses for someone, you should probably worry about what's next. It's sort of the "magazine cover curse" writ large.


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I sold my FXE long position this morning at a tiny, tiny profit. Over the next hour, I entered into it again a couple of times, thinking perhaps I was being hasty, and each time, I exited with a small loss. I finally threw my hands up and decided it was an inadequate hedge.

As I'm typing this, it is falling to pieces, hitting new lows. I'm glad I'm out. It seems a distinct possibility to me that the "bounce" finished on Sunday night, and we're simply continuing down the inevitable path to 1.14 and Euro-destruction.


First Resistance (by Springheel Jack)

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We have a promising setup for a decent bounce on SPX but it has been failing at the first decent resistance so far. It may not get any higher, but I think it's too early to write it off altogether yet. We also have a possible triangle forming on SPX and if we don't see a break up today, then rising support from the low and triangle support is just over 1300: