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It didn't take me much time this morning to add a new position, and I did so by shorting Hawaiian Electric (HE) at $28.44. The stock is forming a very nice head and shoulders pattern this morning, and the only drawback to this play is that it hasn't broken the neckline of the aforementioned pattern. So that does increase my risk, but my reasons for seemingly 'jumping the gun' is to to keep risk tight in case this market does continue to rally, but provide my a hedge against my existing four long positions that I have (I also have a short position right now in BRO).
Just because things are looking well-overbought, and a number of my indicators that I follow are showing the same thing, doesn't mean I'm going to front run this market, in hopes of timing that reversal. Instead, I just want to curb my exposure as much as possible, tighten up long stops, etc .
All traders must figure out the style of trading that best suits them in order to survive and profit in the markets. I quickly discovered that my style was best suited for placing leveraged intraday bets on the S&P via options. When I would describe this to other traders they would look at me and derisively say, “oh, so you’re just a day trader.” This absolutely infuriated me at first, but then I came to not only be ok with this label but actually embrace it. Why? Simply, I find that my safety is my trigger finger.
One of my favorite features in SocialTrade is the Reminder, since I often want to be reminded to "look back" at a particular prediction and see how it worked out.
This morning, for instance, I was emailed a reminder about an astrological configuration that had been offered as a "crash" warning. That was several weeks ago, and suffice it to say – in case you hadn't noticed – nothing's crashed anywhere.
So I'd like to be able to DO something with this result so that, over the course of time, SocialTraders can get a sense as to what works and what doesn't. My current idea is to be able to assign a "rating" to this item, now that the event has passed. Perhaps it could range from -5 to +5 (with the page above getting, I suppose, a -5 rating). I think I'd label this star rating as Predictive Value.
But I'd love to hear your ideas as well – – or whether or not SocialTraders out there would like to see this kind of new feature added. I don't want to over-complicate the system, but I want to build up the knowledge base in a useful way at the same time.
The Russell 2000 Index is in demand, so far, today, as shown on the one-day comparison chart below with its fellow Major Indices.
The RUT:RVX (Russell 2000 Volatility Index) Daily ratio chart below shows that the Russell closed above its downtrend resistance line yesterday and has advanced further, so far, today. The question is, can it hold onto its gains by the close today, and thereafter?
The SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart below shows the S&P 500 Index near the top of this week's action, so far, today…one to watch to see if it can advance and hold above its near-term resistance level of 92.50.
It has been a year since gold began its downward biased consolidation out of the acute phase of the Euro meltdown and resulting hysteria. In that time, the deflation case was released from the jail that had been a heightened public fear of inflation (the pinnacle of which was in spring of 2011, a time when bond king Bill Gross was very famously short long-term US Treasury bonds).
I mentioned yesterday that ES and SPX were looking short term toppy and that's even more the case today. On ES we have a possible rising wedge forming as I mentioned yesterday, and within that rising wedge ES has broken short term (weak) rising support and now formed a possible double-top. On a break below 1390 the pattern target is in the 1378 area, but I'd really be looking for a move to rising wedge support in the 1370 area.