Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Octopus – the Awesome, Mind-Boggling Tale of Sam Israel

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I just finished reading Octopus by Guy Lawson, and it's one of those rare books that fit the "I Couldn't Put It Down" category, much like Den of Thieves, published in 1992. It is the tale of Sam Israel, whom you may remember in 2006 was on the lam from his failed hedge fund/Ponzi scheme. He faked his suicide, was captured, and is now hanging out for the next couple of decades (with none other than Bernie Madoff) in a state prison named, of all things, Valhalla.

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What’s Really Changed?

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What's really changed since Standard & Poor's downgraded
the U.S. credit rating on August 5, 2011?

One year has passed, and the
SPX has gone from a low of 1074.77 on October 4, 2011 to a high
of 1426.68 yesterday (Tuesday), as shown on the Daily chart below. A double top
has formed at major resistance.

The credit rating has not been upgraded. The Fed also downgraded the economic
outlook at their meeting on August 9, 2011, as mentioned in my post of August 9th. The Fed remains committed to holding
long term interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Europe's economic
condition has weakened. The global economies have slowed. And, finally, the U.S. National Debt
continues to rise (unabated) to all-time highs each second. The Fiscal Cliff
looms.
Who is convinced that economic and fiscal conditions have improved since then?
The only ones, so far, have been the buyers above the yellow arrows. No doubt
they will begin to take profits at current levels and re-think their positions
after the next FOMC meeting in September. A drop and hold below June's lows of
this year would confirm that their sentiment has changed.

Long Autodesk at $35.23 (by Ryan Mallory)

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There's a clear resistance area that the stock has managed to break through this morning and you can simply put a stop-loss below the previous higher-low on the daily chart at $33.59. Since late March it has been on a prolonged sell-off, but over the past two months, it has formed a nice base, and today's breakout confirms it's ready to start trending higher again. 

Here's the trade setup in ADSK:

Autodesk ADSK

Be sure to checkout Ryan's Blog at SharePlanner.com

DBC in Between a Rock and a Hard Place

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The Commodities ETF (DBC) began and ended today (Tuesday) at
the apex of and in between trendline resistance and support, as shown on the
Daily chart below…an important one to watch tomorrow and thereafter!

An indication of weakness would likely be confirmed by a failure of
AUD/USD to regain and hold above 1.05, along with further
weakness in China's Shanghai Index, as discussed in my posts of
August 17th and August 15th.

A View of EUR/USD in 500 pip Segments

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Each candle on the chart below of the EUR/USD
forex pair represents 500 pips. The current candle bounced from
a Fibonacci and price confluence support level on July 10th of this year and has
rallied 446 pips, so far. Should it continue to advance by a total of 500 pips,
it would put price at 1.2541, which is at a confluence of price and Fibonacci
resistance.

You can see that this 500 pip level, as depicted by
the two white horizontal lines, represents a major level of support and
resistance
. A break and hold either above or below this "500
pip zone"
would set the stage for the next move up or down over the
ensuing days/weeks…an important zone to monitor.

Target Areas Reached (by Springheel Jack)

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SPX and Dow both reached the ideal target area for a double-top yesterday, with both making marginal new highs for 2012 and reversing. I think there's a sound technical argument for seeing a test of the 1440 area pivot on SPX, but if this is a double-top forming then ideal targets were reached on both yesterday. Here's how that looks on the SPX daily chart:

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