Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Big Returns = Big Money
Big Portfolio = Big Positions
Big Positions = Big Profits
Bigger Positions = Bigger Cash Returns on Small % Gains = Less need for significant winning trades
So Why don't we all just trade as big as we can?
Because the exact opposite is true when you lose and the true reality of the above statements really becomes:
I took the long-trade in BE Aerospace (BEAV) at $40.75 as I was thrilled to find this gem of a setup with increasing volume levels over the past two days. Expect, once the FOMC statement comes out at 12pm eastern, for there to be increased volatility in the market. Traditionally, the Fed tries to provide incumbent presidents running for re-election with favorable monetary policy, so I figure the edge is likely on the bullish side heading into the announcement.
The posted short has a lot of potential too, but its really hard to get heavily bearish when the market seems so determined to continue its upward push.
Here's the Lazy Trade Long & Short:
LONG: BE Aerospace (BEAV)
Plains Exploration & Production (PXP)
So the deflationary err… issue of the last year served to what? Beuller? Anyone?
‘Get the herd on the wrong side and lay the groundwork for a coming whopper of an inflation! Yes… very good.’
At least that is what we are led to believe Ben Stein’s economics
professor would have confirmed to the class. It sure does seem handy
that the USD has been king since last summer and the mighty and ultra
safe (ha ha ha) US T bond has been the
safe haven in the investing world. These are the areas in which the
Fed would seek to leverage the new found confidence in its
inflation-making machinery as they compromise these assets. USD and T
bonds came to be so aggressively owned after all by the frightened
‘Why oh why is the stock market up??’ ask the despondent bears.
That’s why; money is running to asset markets at the behest of the
Federal Reserve’s hints.
I think it is wise to await the coming FOMC release before leaning
too heavily one way or another, given that asset markets have already
priced in some inflationary talk or action. But it is obvious that
unless the Fed loses its mind and decides to do the right thing and
abandon its modus operandi of leveraging the currency in the name of
asset appreciation and economic sustenance (diminishing though it is),
the USD is earmarked for lower levels eventually.
The chart says it’s over sold. It also says it is losing a support
zone. The next support is noted. The precious metals are getting beat
on a bit for the second day in a row. This is expected and is a sign
that they love us. Gold should not be rising into the FOMC release.
I still have concerns about the precious metals’ over bought status
and the CoT structure, but I also wonder if the hits on the PM’s are
clearing some of that short interest out. We’ll see, but the main point
of this post is to note that there remains room in the US dollar, in T
bonds and indeed, in the entire ‘deflationary mock up’ to get an
inflationary operation under way sooner or later.
Will there be news? Will stocks and precious metals sell or buy the news? Today starts the clock ticking.