Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

ABT Short

By -

ABT daily

ABT looks like something straight out of a book on technical
analysis:  First, prices became overbought and an extended move up
within this large ascending channel with negative divergences on the
MACD and RSI put in place at the recent highs.  After forming a very
bearish Evening Doji Star candlestick pattern around the highs (with the
doji kissing the top of the channel), prices then made a large gap
below the bottom of the channel. 

ABT went on to set up in a very clean
bear-flag pattern just below the channel and a solid break below that
pattern would likely spark the next wave of impulsive selling.  Note how
the pattern measurement for the bear-flag lines up nicely with my third
target, which I had added before adding the pattern projection. Nothing
is 100% in trading but from a charting perspective, it just doesn’t get
much better than this.

I will consider ABT an active short at the open tomorrow unless the
stock opens above today’s close of 65.04, in which case I will wait for a
confirmed break below the flag pattern.  Those targeting T3 might
consider a stop not far above the 66.80 area while a stop slightly above
the 67.60 area might be more suitable those targeting T4 (my preferred
swing target).

SPX Weekly & Equity Put/Call Ratio

By -

The S&P 500 lost 1425 and this chart from NFTRH 210 shows why
this former support level is important.  Get above it and SPX is off to
the bull races; stay below and be subject to the next level of support
at 1375, which is the current target based purely on technicals.

spx

The US presidential election is a big wild card in the middle of the
analysis right now, but the raw technicals say that any negative
reaction to the election had better be contained at 1375 or else the
near term bullish phase – that remains intact with a series of higher
highs and higher lows out of 2011 – would be under threat.

The lower panel shows the Equity Put/Call Ratio’s 1 week moving
average.  The green dotted lines show that it tends to make a higher low
into significant tops, which have come three times within the bull
market out of 2009.  This is a warning sign on the SPX that while the
bull trend is technically not over until it makes a lower low beneath
1275, a lot of damage could happen if the correction gains momentum.

So it is critical to the bull case that SPX get above 1425 and failing that, hold 1375.

http://www.biiwii.com

Four More Years? (by Springheel Jack)

By -

Looking at the polls this morning an Obama victory looks more likely than not. I don't have much time for Obama, as in my view he's just been a stuffed shirt and empty head sitting behind a desk that a president of genuine force and vision, like either Hillary Clinton or John McCain, could have been occupying to much greater effect. All one can say for him really is that he looks good compared to his predecessor, who was really an unmitigated economic and fiscal disaster. That said Obama is on the verge of his first genuinely impressive achievement in office, which is being re-elected with a track record that would have sunk most re-election campaigns. If he is re-elected tomorrow this may of course also be his last impressive achievement in office. 

(more…)