Over Loved, Over Emotional, Over Bullish

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We have a bunch of economic data on tap for the market to get emotional over. Jerk to the left, jerk to the right; as if any one period’s data is anything other than a reason to game a market running on pure momentum.

And then we have Huey, Dooey, Louie and even a couple more popping out to dump even more signals on the market as we go full frontal Jawbone today:

“In addition, five Fed officials will be speaking on Thursday. From Milan, we’ll hear from Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser — his second speech in Europe this week — and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who is a voting Federal Open Market Committee member. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, Fed. Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are also on tap to deliver speeches.”

It should be interesting if nothing else. Beyond any one day’s knee jerking, there is this to consider (graphics courtesy of Sentimentrader.com):

Smart Money vs. Dumb Money (current)

The ‘smart vs. dumb money’ structure is exactly opposite to what it was one year ago when we used this picture in support of a bullish stance:

Smart Money vs. Dumb Money (1 year ago)

And people just love stocks over bonds, almost as if there is a Great Rotation taking place or something. Ha ha ha…

Stocks to Bonds ratio

The bulls are right and those that have been bulls for a year have been right for a year; both of them. In full disclosure, I was bullish as appropriate last spring and summer and then proceeded to not nearly maximize that fact. That’s show biz.

Now I am bearish. I hope to maximize that stance. There is a case for higher stock prices later in 2013 or early 2014. But for now, this pig is over loved just as it was over hated a year ago.