Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Taper!(?)

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It’s ‘taper’ talk time again and here is a post that is only too happy to join the cacophony…

Dear Federal Reserve, please signal what would be at least a symbolic gesture to the market and pretend to tighten policy by beginning a tapering of long-term bond buying. We know inflation is being promoted via ZIRP at the discount window and via money printing used for T bond and MBS asset purchases. (more…)

Opposing Trends

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Generally speaking, there are two trends happening in the market (we’ll set aside the fact that the long-term trend, going back five years now, is up………obviously). The intermediate-term trend is ascending, as illustrated below by the green tints. The market has, for months, moved on to higher highs. The short-term trend, however, is bearish – illustrated by the cyan tints – creating a petite descending channel. By the end of day tomorrow, we should know whether this short term trend has been thrown in the garbage, or if the intermediate trend has, in fact, been broken for good. (more…)

Hold or Fold?

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I often talk about the need, fairly early in any trend, to establish either a significant rising support trendline (in an uptrend) or a significant declining resistance trendline (in a downtrend). That is a key reason that I was looking for a strong rally here and I think those key trendlines have now been established on both SPX and RUT. The question now is whether those trendlines will hold or fold. If the downtrend is to continue then the RTH yesterday was the rally high and both SPX and RUT should turn down from there. If the downtrend is to break and open up a retest of the highs and a Santa Rally, then I’d expect those trendlines to break up today or tomorrow. (more…)