Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Bitcoin Crash

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When I finished writing my history book (which is coming out in February), I had a much deeper perspective on some of the great manias in financial history. In the modern age, Bitcoin has provided us a new South Seas, Dutch Tulip, and John Law all wrapped into one, and I’ve been stunned at the doe-eyed innocence that the press has given the “currency.” Its recent loss of about 55% of its value in the span of a few weeks is no huge surprise. My guess is that, within a year, this will be $100 or so once more. People. Never. Learn. (more…)

A Close Look at Utilities

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As boring as the Dow Jones Utility Average might sound, it’s actually a fascinating little beast. It provided the most gorgeous topping pattern imaginable back in 2007-2008, and it behaves itself quite well with respect to its trendlines and Fibonaccis. Observe the chart below and take note of the Fibonacci fan lines, which date back for many years. This particular line has acted like a magnet for the entire recovery, and recently it has been banging against it, respecting it as support each time. (more…)