Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Thoughtful Email

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I get emails from Slopers around the world every day of the year. Some of them stand out as particularly erudite or insightful, and the one below is one of them. The writer kindly gave me permission to share his email anonymously with all my readers (the boldface emphasis is my own):

One of the posts over the last few years, that really resonated with me was the one where you refused to make money on the long side of the market which you felt was “dishonest”. I thought that the post was so powerful that I stood up in applause on my work station. And I would have written commending you on the post had I not been neck deep in shit at that moment.

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Pattern-Friendly Market

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It wasn’t that long ago that I hated the stock market. Nothing seemed to work, and technical analysis seemed to have gone the way of the buggy whip with respect to utility. Now that QE is well behind us (for now, at least), we’ve got a two-way market, and charts are behaving a lot better, even with the mayhem we witnessed over the past few days.

Take XLV, for example, which is the healthcare ETF. It roared higher after yesterday’s collapse, but it is, as I am typing this, daintily perched just beneath its gap. The distribution above above that gap is our ally, and just about every index and ETF I am looking at has some version of this top (with two or three key resistance levels, each one more formidable than the one beneath).

0825-xlv

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Step Aside 1987 Crash and Lehman Brothers

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That was an amazing day yesterday, and the close near the (SPX) lows delivered a second straight daily close well under the 3SD daily lower band, a feat not equalled in the 1987 crash, the 1994 bonds crash, the 1997 Asian Crisis, the 1998 Russian Crisis and collapse of LCTM, the 2000 Tech Crash or the Lehman Brothers in 2008. Why? Not sure yet though Shanghai falling to a level last seen six months ago doesn’t seem like a great reason.

Hat tip to my option trader friend Yousuf Hamid here for his prediction to me at the weekend that the next move would be a hard and fast fall to 1820. Nice call mate.

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Retracement Levels Weighs In

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Friend-of-Slope and long-time contributor 2sweeties (who created Retracement Levels) wrote me this morning stating, in part, “Attached, ES 1949 should be the limit DAILY for this bounce, 1996 is next but far, plus it’s beyond 100% odds, so maybe somewhere in between 1949 and 1996 is where this bounce will stop and roll down again.”

He was kind enough to include this from his site:

0825-nico

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