Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I received an email today that I found somewhat troubling, and it compelled me to write this post. In the email, the reader was concerned that, in spite of my bravado declared in this weekend’s Sell and Hold post, I had (on Friday and today, that is, Monday) covered a meaningful number of my shorts and had partially retreated. She felt it wasn’t very “transparent” to state, on the one hand, that I hoped to hold onto positions for months, and yet on the other, beat a quick path to the Exit door the moment trouble arrived.
I think it would be beneficial for me to explain my style and method to help reconcile those two realities cited above, because I’m comfortable living with the paradox, and I want readers to know that I’m being forthright with them.
Excerpted from the October 4 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 363. Reference previous articles on this theme, Macrocosm, Microcosm & Microcosm Expanding…
Here again is our representation of what a positive macro environment would look like for a bullish gold and gold mining stance. We created this theme in July for NFTRH 353.
This view comes off as repugnant to much of the gold “community”, but I cannot stress strongly enough how important it is to tune out the fairy stories about missing COMEX gold (and silver), love-inspired demand from China and India, ‘rising US employment drives interest rates, incentivizes banks to lend and creates inflation, driving people into gold and gold stocks’ or any other angle out there that does not focus on declining confidence in policy making and its ability to control economies and financial markets. Every single one of these supposed fundamentals have already been proven wrong.
It’s been so long that I’ve actually suggested a bullish chart, I thought I’d break my own trend and do so: here is one of the very few charts that looks like a good, strong long pattern: Boyd Gaming.
Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Long Workday (WDAY)
Bears needed a close under the 5dma on Friday, and for a while it looked as though they could deliver that. Bulls took back control though and rallied almost sixty handles to close back over the daily middle band. That was a very significant show of strength, and unless bears can deliver a rejection candle today, which would be a tall red candle reversing most or all of Friday’s gains, we should see more upside. I’m not expecting to see a rejection candle today though.
So what are the upside targets here? Well there is some resistance in the 1970-80 area, including the 38.2% fib retrace at 1970 and falling channel resistance at 1978. There is a second resistance area at 2000, with the 50dma at 2000, the 50% fib retrace at 2001, and the upper band currently at 2005.