Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Ever since the Fed quit QE, the market has been oscillating based on OPEX. Many sites have been remarking on this as of late (so probably will not work this month) but technical patterns, seasonal s, and trend-lines suggest we take the trade short. Also, it looks likely that the market has readjusted back to levels prior to the we are going to raise rates meeting. Now what, back into the old rectangle, or as I think we are now in this new lower rectangle.
I am short ES and Biotech, but there are many ways to play this whether you are a conservative or aggressive trader.
It may sound counter-intuitive, but the United States needs a recession. I don’t say that to wish ill will on our nation. I say it for our good. Recessions are the market’s form of cleansing the excesses, and generating new innovations that only pressure can bring. Just as nature protects against major forest fires by having smaller fires from time to time, our economy needs to retreat from time to time to cleanse itself.
Obviously, the Federal Reserve over the seven years has been doing everything in its power to prevent even the smallest retreat in economic activity through an unprecedented expansion of the monetary supply. Distortion is not creation, and printing money does nothing to expand genuine economic activity. On the contrary it leads to mal-investment and greed, two things our nation and economy needs to be cleansed of.
This can best be seen in the energy sector. Contrary to what the public may believe, the world has been drowning in oil for the past few years. The oil market has been badly over-supplied in recent years, as more oil has been coming out of the ground than the world can use or even store.