Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
October continues to utterly stink for me because of the one-two punch of (a) strong equities and (b) strong commodities. I’m far from giving up hope, however, because the individual equity charts look as good as they ever did, and as prices have ascended, the quantity of sensible opportunities has expanded, since the risk/reward ratio is becoming more appealing across the board.
The “easy” part of the bull run is just about done, I think, as most indexes approach the huge overhang of supply. A couple of weeks ago, stocks were so battered that adding to shorts didn’t make sense. At present price levels, I think we’re getting a second bite at the apple. The Dow Industrials has a huge top between 17,100 and 18,400, and the 1700 point rise in the Dow (!!!) since the August crash puts us just beneath that big top.
I’ve mentioned The Container Store (TCS) a number of times here as another flop of an IPO. As with GoPro, this stock seems superb at one thing: make regular lifetime lows. Amazing:
USD/JPY – This count is still extremely messy due to the flat correction that we have seen since the 8/24 low. When we have a count that unclear the best approach is to zoom out to view the bigger picture to help find some clarity.
When we zoom out on USD/JPY what we find is a clearly corrective move off of the June high that was followed by another clearly corrective move off of the August 24th low. This tells us that from the bigger picture perspective we are most likely in a large B wave. A large B wave also makes a lot of sense as B waves are often very messy and many times the most confusing of all of the waves in Elliott Wave Theory. So given that our view that we are in a large B wave off of the August 24th low the question is where within this B wave are we. Well the action since the August 24th low, and especially since the 9/4 low, is making this extremely difficult to determine however this does not mean that we cannot find a setup in which to trade.