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Back on December 26th, I did a premium post called A Musing which stated three things:
I had dumped almost all my positions;
I anticipated a rally to 2600;
the empty-headed optimism of the new year, coupled with trade talks scheduled for the week of January 7th, would provide the necessary fuel for the market to take on what, back on the 26th, seemed like an impossibly swift ascent.
If – – and I repeat, if – – 2600 turns out to be the turning point, the post will have to go down as genius-level in terms of its prescience, accuracy, and clairvoyance (which will make the fact I have traded like a goddamned moron since then less damaging). Today we peaked just a couple of points beneath that level – literally 99.3% of the way there – so if we slip from here, good God, that will be breathtaking.
The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.
Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.
It’s really, really, REALLY easy to be a bear when the market is in a free-fall. Everyone loves you. You get bottles of booze in the mail. You get love letters. The whole schmear.
At times like this, the entire world hates you. (well, more specifically, me). I am, once again, the only equity bear walking the planet. Billionaire fund managers, pundits, analysts, and everyday Joes are stock-crazy once more. Everything is going up. Trump and Powell will save us. China is our friend. And so on.
I’ll humbly offer you this long-term chart of the Russell 2000 with its Fibonacci retracements:
It’s quite evident that the past two weeks of baseless equity strength have infected the minds of everyone, including snarky smoking Slopers who like to pretend the bear market is over. It isn’t. Some choose to be fooled by politicians. I elect to think for myself.
We can see the “spring” in the small caps, for instance, as it nears resistance.
Before I begin, I wanted to mention (again) a very handy feature in the comments section which I introduced years ago: the Ignore button. I get emails from time to time from folks who have no interest in the political chit-chat on the site, or they find certain individuals to be tedious, vexing, or annoying.
This is NOT a hard problem to solve. Just click on the Ignore button (it looks like a “stop!” hand) and, voila, your troubles are over. That person is no longer part of your life.