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The past week saw Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, two traditional finance investment banks, discuss cryptos, their identities as an asset class, and CBDC’s potential threat to the U.S. dollar. Dr. Marc J.J. Fleury, CEO of fintech firm Two Prime, discusses the following topics this week, with full commentary below.
GS: Crypto is not a real asset —In a recent investor call, Goldman Sachs spoke about how bitcoin and other coins were unsuitable for investment, with BTC’s run likened to that of the Tulip mania back in the 1600s. When it seems so obvious that crypto is here to stay, what do they still not understand?
JPM: CBDCs may undermine the hegemony of the USD — In a report last week, JPMorgan asserted that “there is no country with more to lose from the disruptive potential of digital currency than the United States.” How realistic is it for a digital currency like bitcoin to become the world’s new reserve currency? What conditions should be met for this to occur? How will the global monetary system look if the scenario is impossible?
I tweeted an excerpt from my premarket video on Thursday last week where I was talking about the ideal path for ES over the coming days and the plan was to see a high respecting a trendline then in the mid-3060s, seen on Thursday afternoon, then a retracement into the 3000 area, seen on Friday, and then a push into 3100 area for the middle of this week, currently in progress. With the historical stats for today and tomorrow both over 70% green on SPX, I’m thinking that level might be seen before the close tomorrow. We’ll see.
In the short term I have short term wedge resistance on the SPX 15min chart in the 3085-90 area, and that is the next obvious target.
We remain short Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which I still consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short thesis are:
Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unlike Tesla—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably, as well as the ability to subsidize losses on electric cars with profits from their conventional cars.
In 2020 Tesla will again lose money, as it has every year in its 17-year existence.
Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; revenue growth is flatlining while unit demand for its cars is only being maintained via price cutting.