Well, I just finished watching the first debate, which ended a few minutes ago. First of all, if we assume that a Trump victory would mean more stock market gains, then it seems the real-time reaction is that Trump won.
Let me hasten to add that the market is rapidly changing; even as I am typing this, some of the gains from the ES and NQ are slipping away fast (UPDATE: see below), although that isn’t reflect in either the chart above or the chart below. But, a few minutes before the debate ended, equities were clearly cheering on Trump, as shown here also on the NQ chart:.
For the record, I am not enthusiastic about this election in the least. As with 2016, my own view is that we’ve got two lousy candidates, and I don’t support either one. So I feel I can speak relatively dispassionately about the performance tonight.
What stunned me is that Biden didn’t get some serious coaching in being succinct. Too much rambling, too much stalling, too many long sentences. The viewing public has a very short attention span, and I found myself quickly disengaged – – and if I may say so, I think my attention span is better than the average citizen of Americuh.
I’ll end this post now, but even though I’m a fast typist, in the few minutes it has taken me to compose this, the entirety of the gains in equities have been zeroed out. Did the perception of the market change once things took a few minutes to sink in? It sure seems that way.
FINAL UPDATE: It’s approaching midnight, and the markets are falling to pieces as I’m typing this. I find this fascinating…………why the shift? What happened? How come equities went raging higher during the debate and collapsed afterwards? I wish I knew.