As I mentioned in my last post, I have been absolutely gobbling up A Fiscal Cliff. I haven’t enjoyed reading a book this much since fellow Sloper David Stockman’s Great Deformation. As for “Cliff”, I am only five chapters of this rather lengthy twenty chapter book, but I wanted to share some of my notes with you from what I’ve read so far:
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That Ship Sailed
About a week ago, someone here pointed my attention to a new book called A Fiscal Cliff. I am absolutely loving it – – can hardly put it down – – and I’m sure to write a long review/summary of it once I’m finished with its 400+ pages. As a side note, even though the book is pretty much hot off the presses, its data is made out-of-date thanks to Covid. For one thing, it mentions how in ten years we might pass the record Debt-to-GDP level of 107% set back in 1946. Well, folks, put down your pencils. We have roared right past that level massively………….we’re up to where the CBO projected we’d be in the year 2060 already.
Bank On It
As the market struggles with whether we are heading to 4,600 on the S&P (as the good people at Goldman Sachs assert) or instead lose of the recent mega-rally, I would suggest keeping a close eye on KBE, the bank sector ETF. We are at an important resistance level, just beneath a substantial cluster of overhead supply.
Triple Small
Below is the chart of TNA, the triple-bullish-fund based on small caps. It seems to me we have run into a wall of resistance, indicated by both a horizontal line and a shorter diagonal.
So Here We Are
Firstly my apologies for the wait since my last post. I’m currently getting divorced, which isn’t much fun, and the presidential election was so polarising in the US that I was getting the impression that if I mentioned that the weather was getting chillier as the season changed, then some would feel that was a comment on the election and get offended. The election is finally over….ish, and I think it’s safe to start writing again about markets.
So in my last post I was writing about the bull flags that would likely deliver retests of the all time high as and when they broke up. Those evolved into larger bullish patterns, a bull pennant on SPX, a bull flag on INDU, a possibly still forming bullish pattern on NDX, and on Monday those broke up into new all time highs on SPX, Dow 30 and RUT, but not so far on NDX. Equity indices are still retracing from those Monday highs, so what should we expect next?
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