Time for the Big Breakout?

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Well, to those who thought the end-of-day in sanity on Friday was an extremely temporary spike that would soon be washed out, this simply isn't the case. As I type this, half an hour before the regular opening bell, the /ES is up over 14 points. There is a serious threat of the big breakout finally happening which would look something like this:

0601-june

This would fulfill the /ES target of ~1075 that I've been talking about forever (but have largely failed to profit from).

This is actually a pretty obvious direction, and I frankly don't see much standing in its way. The market doesn't seem to care about bad news, and whatever good news it receives is welcome as more signs of green shoots spouting up all around.

The less obvious result from today would be a failed breakout, which would be pretty damaging for the bulls, since the pattern as it stands now is marvelously clean. A failure's form is much harder to project, but it might look something like this:

0601-junefail

What would happen after that is tough to say, although it would probably be a real mess for bulls and bears alike. The clean, easy-to-trade pattern would be the continuation of the breakout shown first.

Just a general heads-up to Slopers that this will be a week chock full of meetings and travel for me, so I'll be a lot less chatty (and a little less bloggy) than usual.