Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Stocks Roll Out of Bed (by Varsity Investor)

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Do you guys remember that great E-Trade commercial from the dot.com era where the distraught trader jumps out his office window?  He was on the first floor of his house and landed comfortably.  I'm wondering if the market just did something similar.  I've sort of felt like Ferris Bueller's sister this week with talk of "The Triangle" everywhere I turned.  Yes, it resolved to the downside yesterday on a pickup in volume (some technically driven piling on was likely), but did it land on a thick, fluffy zone of support?

The following chart suggests that might be the case:

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Many Triangles Break Down (by Springheel Jack)

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Today's post will have to be short as I'm going out soon and will be out for most of the day. I have to be out most of Monday morning as well so Monday's post may also be short.

Obviously the symmetrical triangle broke downwards yesterday and broke down hard enough that I think it is unlikely to be a false break. This is disappointing from a probabilities perspective, mainly as these triangles are poor performers on downwards breakouts, with only a 48% chance of reaching the target in a break down. That statistic is in a bull market and Bulkowski hasn't even given a statistic for these in a bear market as they don't qualify as a high probability pattern in either direction in a bear market. You can see Bulkowski's page on these here.

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