Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Weekend Update (by Heavenskrow)

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I thought business ethics was a pretty useless class…but I did get one thing out of it that can apply to trading.

"In recent years psychologists have discovered a number of weaknesses and biases in how human beings make decisions. As a backdrop, recognize that cognitive weaknesses and biases we will be discussing operate primarily because people try to reduce uncertainty and simplify their world. Be aware, though, that your thinking about the facts is likely to be biased.

Research evidence suggests that you many look for the wrong ones or stop looking too soon because you think you already have all the facts you need. Being overconfident can make you fail to search for additional facts or for support for the facts you have. All of us have the tendency to look for information that will confirm our preferred answer or choice and to neglect to search for evidence that might prove us wrong.

In an attempt to overcome the confirmation trap, it's important that you consciously try to think of ways you could be wrong. Incorporate questions in your individual and group decision-making processes such as, "How could I be wrong?" What facts are still missing?" and "what facts exist that might prove me/us to be wrong?"

 

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My Beef with The Grind

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On Tuesday evening, I was bemoaning to myself how lamely the month had been going. After six trading days, I was sitting on a loss, and I was really frustrated. I thought to myself, "Well, one really good day would fix that." And then I paused a few moments and thought again, "Yeah, like a day THAT good is going to happen."

And then Wednesday happened, and, voila, it turned the entire month around.

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