Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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In the perpetual cycle of the masses buying toward market tops and
capitulating toward market bottoms, I often think of the old Wall Street
adage; “It’s always darkest before the dawn” which refers to the fact
that market bottoms come when the news regarding the fundamentals and
the outlook for the markets and economy is horrible yet the
deterioration looks almost certain to continue going forward. I’m sure
there is a good corollary to that statement out there somewhere which
essentially says that things are looking great at a market top and just
about all forecasts and trends point to things only getting better from
there… or something along those lines. With that, I leave you with
these two Google searches using the same keywords, the first one limited
to headlines over the last month and the next one limited to headlines
over the month preceding the market top on May 2, 2011, just before the 5
month & nearly 22% plunge in the index.
Yeah, it's a pretty sad when I'm resorting to rehashing funny stuff from the comments section, but this is one of those days where I want to gouge Janet Yellen's eyes out with my thumbs while Bernanke watches, tied up on a post nearby. All the same, I'll come up with some charts or something real soon now. Honest. Nine "up" days in a row on the Russell 2000 can take the wind out of a bear's sails.
We have been reviewing different versions of this chart in NFTRH
over the last several weeks as the S&P 500 approaches a
long-standing target of 1550+. Today it looks like that target will be
hit and exceeded with ease, but last summer and right through the Fiscal
Cliff nonsense in December, very few were willing to entertain such
ES crawled up using the 50 hour moving average as support yesterday and has pushed up further overnight. The 50 HMA is at 1542 and strong level support is at 1537. Until the 50 HMA at least is broken with any confidence there is nothing to see on the bear side here: