Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Hammer Time

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After the hard break down through the weekly middle bollinger band on SPX on Monday, a series of lower downside targets opened up and I spent some time assessing the relative merits of those. However on a weekly candlestick, as with all candlesticks, the most important data points are the open and the close, and last week’s candle closed on Friday in the green, and back above the weekly middle band, delivering a very nice looking bullish white hammer candle. All of the action under the weekly middle band was therefore intraweek and on a weekly closing basis the middle band held as support. That bullish candle is a bottoming/reversing candlestick, albeit one that needs confirmation the following week. SPX weekly chart: (more…)

ES Quantitative Analysis

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Before beginning the analysis I just wanted to say I have been deeply touched by BDI’s post. I am relatively new to the forum, having been away from SOH since 2009, I do not know any of today’s forum participants and writers. I just had my very first brief, comments/jokes exchange with BDI in the forum two days ago, I am shocked to hear about his health issues and I wish him all the best. Posting market analysis in this moment, on this forum, feels a bit awkward… but anyway, here we go:

Last week, on Monday, we suggested that the ES was probably bottoming, because the WEEKLY and DAILY odds were quite good.

The trade at 1757.75 was trashed by the ensuing correction, however the odds just got better from there. (more…)