Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The past twelve hours have been just bizarre. The newest little war in the mideast broke out yesterday after the close, but the ES and NQ didn’t seem to care for many hours. Crude oil, on the other hand, went absolutely ballistic, as did (later) precious metals. And yet since peaking in the wee hours of the morning, gold has been just pooing all over the place, and the the once-glorious drops in e-mini (like down over 20 points on the ES) have turned into green (just like some Slopers adroitly pointed out it would early this morning).
Well I said it would be a big break if my rising channel broke and well, here we are. SPX broke back below the daily middle band yesterday and closed at the test of main rising wedge support. That has broken down at the open and we are back to the stats I gave at the break back below the 5 DMA a few days ago, when I said that every similar break since the start of 2007 had resulted in a lower low before a higher high. I’m expecting that lower low under 2039.69 this week and most likely today. I’d add that the daily lower band is at 2040 so that really is the next obvious target. SPX daily chart:
What a night for news! The three big items that leap out at me as I blearily start the day…….
- That the 28-year old co-pilot of the Germanwings flight was the one who did the deed. Good. God. In a way, I’m relieved it wasn’t a terrorist attack or a mechanical failure, but that didn’t save any of the poor souls on board. I’ve always thought that dying in a plane crash would be an especially horrific and terrifying-beyond-belief way to die. For this man to subject nearly 200 people to this………..words fail me.
- The mega-surge, then just plain surge, in crude oil – I’ve got a smallish-mediumish size short in crude oil, but more importantly, I’ve got a smattering of energy shorts, so oil’s Yemen-based ascent is going to definitely tax some of my otherwise good profits this morning. The only silver lining for me is that, in CNBC style, I can say that oil is “well off the highs”, since it’s up less than half as much as it was earlier in the session.
- The liftoff in gold and silver: like I’ve said many times, I actually do want precious metals to perform spectacularly (for a variety of reasons), but at the moment, I’m short silver, gold, and miners – – so, again, that’s going to take a bite out of what would otherwise be what’s looking like a pretty good day on the short side.
Well, that’s it. Time to get this party started.