Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Major World Market Index Poised for Breakout or Failure?

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The World Market Index will need to recapture the 200-day moving average, as well as the 1900 level, as shown on the following Daily chart. Since it’s still under the bearish influences of a moving average Death Cross formation, it’s still vulnerable to a retest of the 50-day moving average, or lower, should we see major world markets plunge…a drop and hold below the 50 level on the RSI could point price in that direction.

Inflection Point Test

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The ability of the media to weave together news and the markets has a strange inverted genius to it. If ES has risen strongly on the decent NFP number this morning then the explanation would have been that the market was responding to the increasing strength of the US economy. As ES has fallen instead the explanation will be that the increasing strength of the US economy is making further QE less likely and bringing forward the prospect of increasing interest rates. We should never underestimate the power of a good rationalization:

Personally I wonder whether the news was actually important here at all, as a retest of Wednesday’s low was always a strong possibility. The bear scenario requires it to complete and test the H&S targeting the 2055 area on a break below Wednesday’s lows. The bulls need it to set up a double bottom that would target a retest of the all time high on a break over yesterday’s highs. SPX 5min chart:

150306 SPX 5min Possible IHS Forming

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